Bayesian Unit Root Testing: the Effect of Choice of Prior on Test Outcomes 1 Bayesian Unit Root Testing: the Effect of Choice of Prior on Test Outcomes

A Monte Carlo experiment is used to examine the size and power properties of alternative Bayesian tests for unit roots. Four different prior distributions for the root that is potentially unity – a uniform prior and priors attributable to Jeffreys, Lubrano, and Berger and Yang – are used in conjunction with two testing procedures: a credible interval test and a Bayes factor test. Two extensions are also considered: a test based on model averaging with different priors and a test with a hierarchical prior for a hyperparameter. The tests are applied to both trending and non-trending series. Our results favor the use of a prior suggested by Lubrano. Outcomes from applying the tests to some Australian macroeconomic time series are presented. Charley Xia is a graduate student and William Griffiths is Professor of Econometrics at the University of Melbourne.